The Schnapsen Log
Measure Twice, Act Once (solution)
Martin Tompa
Recall the frequent advice when following to the last trick before the stock is exhausted: first consider what happens if you duck, because in that case you know what you will draw from the stock (the face-up trump) and exactly what both hands will look like one trick later. In the current case, you have three queens from which you can choose your discard on Emmi’s ♥K. It looks as though they are all equivalent, each being a loser. But don’t be in a rush to choose one at random. There is a big difference among them, and only one of them is the right choice. Do you see which one it is, and why?
Suppose you choose to discard ♥Q on Emmi’s ♥K. Here is the situation one trick later, with Emmi on lead:
Emmi: (39 points)
♠ TK
♥ T
♣ Q
♦ AYou: (21 points)
♠ Q
♥ —
♣ TKJ
♦ Q
Emmi can now cash ♦A and ♠T, coming to 66 trick points exactly and scoring 2 game points. Discarding ♠Q instead of ♥Q has the same unfortunate result.
That leaves only ♦Q. Why is ♦Q the right queen to discard? Because only this discard denies Emmi the possibility to cash her ace. If you discard ♦Q on Emmi’s ♥K, here is the situation with Emmi on lead:
Emmi: (39 points)
♠ TK
♥ T
♣ Q
♦ AYou: (21 points)
♠ Q
♥ Q
♣ TKJ
♦ —
Now all Emmi can do is cash her two tens, which leaves her just shy at 65 trick points. She cannot arrange to take the last trick either, because your 3 trumps guarantee you’ll have one left to win the last trick, provided you lead one of your queens whenever you are on lead.
You are guaranteed to win 1 game point if you discard ♦Q, but you will lose 2 game points if you discard either of the other queens. What a difference the choice of discard and 1 small trick point can make! The lesson is to count carefully.
Since Emmi hasn’t passed the 33 trick point threshold yet at the time of her ♥K lead, you should also consider what will happen if you trump rather than ducking. But there is not much to consider. With those 3 losing queens, the only card you can draw from the stock that will give you a win of the deal is ♣Q for the royal marriage. Those are not good odds. Your expected gain is ⅙(+2) + ⅚(−1) = −1/2. If in fact you saw Emmi exchange ♣J for ♣Q, you have no chance of winning at all. Either way, trumping has a much lower expected gain than the correct duck.
© 2013 Martin Tompa. All rights reserved.
